Crime, policing, and justice

Supporters of stronger international action point to the UN's own assessment. At current trends, the UN says, the global homicide rate in 2030 will be only about one quarter lower than in 2015. That falls short of the Sustainable Development Goal target, which it reads as at least a 50% reduction (UN SDG Report 2026). The UN also reports that the female homicide rate fell at only half the pace of the male rate, and that some small island states, including Haiti, saw sharp increases between 2020 and 2024 (UN SDG Report 2026). UNODC's Global Study on Homicide has a section on how organized crime drives homicide trends in Latin America and the Caribbean (UNODC).

Those wary of cross-country comparison note that the global figures are partly modeled. UNODC builds its global and regional estimates from national submissions plus a statistical model that fills in missing country data (UNODC). UNODC uses an international definition of intentional homicide, and the US FBI uses its own category, "murder and nonnegligent manslaughter" (FBI), so the numbers should not be compared directly. Policy lessons also travel imperfectly. A 2014 National Research Council report found the US incarceration rate 5 to 10 times higher than in Western Europe and other democracies (NRC). That shows how different the starting points are. It does not show which system produces less crime.

For an international comparison, start with the UNODC homicide data portal for country series and source notes (UNODC data portal), and the UN SDG report for regional trends (UN SDG Report 2026). Then check the country's national statistics office or justice ministry for its own definitions and release schedule, and whether it runs a victimization survey comparable to the US one (BJS NCVS). Things that vary between countries: how offenses other than homicide are defined, which agencies supply the data, how much of the population is covered, how recent the latest year is, and whether conflict deaths are counted separately from homicide (the UN reports them separately).

Drafted with AI assistance from linked sources and approved by a person before publication.